Focus on the policy rate decision which will take place later in the week


Remarks/Observations

– Focus on key rate decisions during the week (FOMC on Wednesday, BOJ, BNS on Thursday).

Asia

– The Chinese PBOC cut the 14-day repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.15% (1st use of 14-day repo since January 30). He kept 7-day repos at 2.00%.

– Japan closed for holidays.

Taiwan

– President Biden said US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

– USGS reported 7.2 earthquake 86.7 km (53.7 mi) E of Yujing, Taiwan.

Middle East

– Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is believed to be bedridden after falling “seriously ill”.

Europe

– ECB’s Lane (Ireland, Chief Economist) reiterated his position that the ECB may raise interest rates in upcoming meetings and in early 2023.

– Nagel of the ECB (Germany, hawk): the ECB must continue to raise its rates to control inflation.

– The European Commission has confirmed that it will propose the suspension of 65% of EU budget funds (approximately €7.5 billion) for Hungary from three programs under EU cohesion policy [**Note: first time when EU Commission tests its ‘democracy sanction’].

– German Fin Min Lindner: Prices are skyrocketing and are the biggest danger to economic growth.

– Start of strike at the port of Liverpool.

– UK closed for QE2 funerals.

Americas

– Goldman Sachs analysts cut the US GDP forecast for 2023 from 1.5% to 1.1% while keeping the growth forecast for 2022 at 0.0%.

Speakers/Fixed Income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Shares

clues [Stoxx600 -0.45% at 406.40, FTSE closed, DAX -0.40% at 12,689.68, CAC-40 -0.91% at 6,022.01, IBEX-35 % at #, FTSE MIB -0.66% at 21,964.00, SMI -0.38% at 10,570.20, S&P 500 Futures -0.60%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices generally open lower and remained under pressure in early trading; all sectors start the day in the red; UK closed for Queen’s funeral; less negative sectors include materials and utilities; the sectors among those leading the decline are consumer discretionary and industrials; TF1-M6 merge fails; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include AutoZone.

Shares

Discretionary consumption: CD project [CDR.PL] +10% (Netflix premiere).

Energy: TotalEnergies [TTE.FR] -1.5% (natural gas project).

Health: Valneva [VLA.FR] -12% (termination of collaboration).

Manufacturers: Volkswagen [VOW3.DE] +1%, Porsche [PAH3.DE] +2.5% (Porsche IPO plans).

Telecom: Bouygues [EN.FR] -1.5%, TV1 [TFI.FR] -2%, Metropolis Television [MMT.FR] -4% (merger project between the TF1 and M6 groups abandoned).

Speakers

European Commission proposed “Emergency Single Market Instrument” anti-crisis plans to ask companies to accept priority orders for critical products to avoid a supply crisis.

Wnorowski, member of the Central Bank of Poland (NBP) said he sees no reason for the Polish main rate to exceed 7% (**Note: the current base rate is 6.75%).

Czech Central Bank fee (new member) says suggested recent numbers could be above peak inflation.

Peskov, Russian government spokesman said Ukraine’s allegations of war crimes in the Kharkiv region were lies, same scenario as in Bucha.

Mao, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the government deplores and strongly opposes US President Biden’s comments on Taiwan. Stressed that China reserves the right to take all necessary measures; Had filed severe representations. Biden violated the American vow not to support Taiwan independence.

Kanaani, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: said nuclear talks were possible on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week.

OPEC+ members reportedly missed oil production targets by about 3.6 mbpd in total in August.

Currency/fixed income

– Currency markets are quiet with Japan and the UK closed. Focus on key rate decisions during the week (FOMC on Wednesday, BOJ, SNB and BOE on Thursday).

– The USD clings to recent gains as markets were priced at least another 75 basis points by the Fed this week. The greenback was also helped by safe-haven inflows amid growing risks of a global recession as central banks battle inflation.

– BOE expects further rate hike as Fin Min Kwarteng’s emergency mini-budget, to be delivered on Friday, will provide more details on support to help ease cost of living crisis in the country.

– The BOJ was expected to stick to a massive stimulus on Thursday despite its CPI remaining above the target level for many months.

Economic data

– (CH) Total Swiss weekly sight deposits (CHF): 754.5 billion against 753.4 billion previously; Domestic sight deposits: 638.9B against 638.6B previously.

– (HK) Unemployment rate in August in Hong Kong: 4.1% vs. 4.2%e.

– (EU) July production in eurozone construction M/M: %v -1.3% before; Y/Y: % vs. 0.1% before.

Issuance of fixed income securities

– (NOPE) Norway sold NOK8.0B against NOK8.0B shown in 12 month invoices; 3.30% against 2.11% before; bid-to-cover: 1.49xv 1.36x front.

Look forward

– (UR) Central Bank of Ukraine (NBU) September Minutes.

– (SK) Slovak Debt Agency (Ardal) will sell 2024, 2030, 2036 and 2051 bonds.

– 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB liquidity statistics.

– 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 3.0 billion euros of 12-month BuBills.

– 05:30 (NL) The Dutch Debt Agency (DSTA) will sell 2.0 to 3.0 billion euros in 3 and 6 month notes.

– 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of the upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Friday).

– 06:00 (PT) Portugal August PPI M/M: no east v 0.7% before; Y/Y: None is v 24.8% before.

– 06:45 (US) Libor daily fixing.

– 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Friday).

– 07:25 (BR) Weekly survey of economists from the Central Bank of Brazil.

– 08:00 (UK) No Baltic Dry Bulk daily index (QE2 funeral).

– 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug M/M Industrial Goods Prices: -1.0%ev -2.1% before; Commodity Price Index M/M: No est v -7.4% before.

– 09:00 (FR) The French Debt Agency (AFT) will sell 4.1 to 5.3 billion euros in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bonds.

– 12:00 (CA) Canada 10-Year Bonds.

– 10:00 a.m. (US) NAHB Housing Market Index for September: 47th vs. 49 before.

– 12:00 (CO) Economic activity index of Colombia in July (monthly GDP) Y/Y: 6.5%ev 8.5% before.

– 12:00 (CA) Canada 10-Year Bonds.

– 4:00 p.m. (US) Weekly crop progress report.

– 7:30 p.m. (JP) Japan Aug National CPI Y/Y: 2.9%ev 2.6% before; CPI Ex-Fresh Food (Core) Y/Y: 2.7%ev 2.4% before; CPI Excluding fresh food/energy (Core-Core) Y/Y: 1.5%ev 1.2% before.

– 7:30 PM (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v +1.3% ahead.

– 9:15 p.m. (CN) China PBOC Monthly Lending Prime Rate (LPR) Adjustment: should leave the 1-year and 5-year rates at 3.65% and 4.30% respectively.

– 9:30 p.m. (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) September Minutes.

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